Hovland, two ahead on the run to the wire, showed frailty under fire and bogeyed three of the last six holes. Hatton was just opposite, finishing like a lion to set the early target on a relentless course. After two fine finishes in the Gulf to kick-start his year, his profile reads so why should Tyrrell be three times the price of his Ryder teammate?
Si Woo Kim switches from brilliant to awful in a heartbeat but no fluke about his three-shot triumph five years ago. He made top-ten at Sawgrass last time and had two early tops this season. If last year is anything to go by, March is when the Worksop Wonder comes to life. His back-to-back seconds last year came at Bay Hill and Sawgrass. He is clearly more efficient in his adopted state of Florida.
The incentive for Lee, 49 next month, is that the old fox would overtake champion Fred Funk as oldest Sawgrass winner. However the power players may well come into their own when the heavens open up on the weekend, taking the sting out of the course. Narrow tree-lined corridors and bermuda greens. Webb Simpson and Matt Kuchar have tasted success at both events. Si-woo Kim further enhances this correlation, winning here in and finishing 2nd at Harbour Town in Jim Furyk a two-time winner at Harbour Town has finished runner up here at Sawgrass twice and Kevin Kisner has finished runner-up at both events.
Plenty of crossover form here, with Webb Simpson, Kevin Kisner, Brian Harman and Kevin Streelman all possessing form at the two courses, amongst many more. As we saw two weeks ago, a tough event in this part of the US. Both with speedy bermuda greens and though the host of the Honda, PGA National, is much more demanding in terms of finding the greens, they both rank similarly in driving accuracy and like the PLAYERS, the Honda Classic is one of the toughest courses on the schedule in getting up and down around the greens.
Two more slightly left field correlations up next and I actually think the first of these could offer stronger clues than above. Both courses are of similar distance and with an abundance of water. Both are around average in fairways and greens found, whilst they possess similar levels of difficulty in finding the greens when you do miss the fairways.
Rory won the last renewal there in , the same year he won here at Sawgrass. With Sergio Garcia and Martin Kaymer possessing victories in both events. Both courses ranking incredibly similarly in terms of GIR and fairways found. Field Very little to say about this field. Selections Finally we get to a week where Jon Rahm is no longer a single digit favourite! I looked long and hard at those at the top.
Rahm was under much more consideration this week but something just seems off with him. Ball-striking is good but the short-game has been poor and if the worst of the weather arrives I can see him getting frustrated. Collin Morikawa and Justin Thomas were of much more appeal of that trio, Morikawa in particular. Compared to many, Daniel Berger has had a light start to , though has impressed on virtually every start. He opened his year finishing 5th in the Tournament of Champions, followed by 20th in the Farmers Insurance Open.
Though it failed him in the final round at PGA National, his game has looked in excellent shape for the best part of two years now. Currently ranking 3rd in approach and 40th off-the-tee this season. Also one of the most accurate off the tee, ranking 4th, similar to his stats last year. Also hitting the top ten on two occasions, in and His form at correlating courses adds further promise.
Also possessing three top 5s at the Honda, 2nd in his best. A strong record at the RBC Heritage adds to the optimism, finishing 3rd in and Berger makes it a quartet of runner-up finishes at the correlating courses, as he finished 2nd in the HSBC Champions in at Sheshan. Berger is a four time PGA Tour winner and has tasted victory on some of the most recognisable and historied courses the tour has to offer. He has the grit to handle the tough conditions that are set to befall TPC Sawgrass over the weekend here and pick up another win at an iconic venue.
One that would be the biggest win of his career and put him firmly in the major picture as we get closer to major season. Brooks Koepka has had a solid start to With his game showing positive signs once again in his latest start in the Honda Classic, I think he looks a big price to win here at a venue that has a history of winners dominated by major champions. A missed cut followed but he once again looked in decent nick in a tough Honda Classic in that most recent start, finishing 16th thanks to a particularly strong ball-striking week.
In truth, Koepka has been hitting the ball well, for the most part, for the last 12 months. Barring his sticky end to last year.
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