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This time, Vegas expected them to win by a 5-point margin, but they disappointed in a big way by dropping the game by Got it? Do teams historically tend to bounce back in their next game after getting embarrassed against the spread ATS? The short answer is yes! That fits perfectly with my contrarian approach to sports betting. That forces sportsbooks to adjust their odds and it creates good opportunities for contrarians like us! Obviously, as a statistician, I need data to back up my intuitions.
Still, a Notice how the win percentages generally increase as we move down the table. More specifically, teams that have lost the past game by If it got destroyed by Those are pretty convincing numbers over a large sample. And it goes in accordance with my initial intuition, so we have a perfect mix for a betting system that we can actually trust in the future. I did! In the table below, we are betting teams that lost the two most recent games of the series ATS which does not necessarily mean they lost those games straight up!
Remember what we saw in Section 2 of this article! Each row specifies the number of points by which the team in question lost the previous game of the series. As for columns, they indicate the same information, but this time relative to what happened two games ago. Overall, teams losing against the spread on two straight occasions in a series have gone We observe a funny coincidence: the win percentage, Now, if you impose the restriction of only betting teams that have lost by at least 4.
The corresponding ROI turns out to be So far we have developed two terrific betting strategies that recommend backing teams coming off one or two disappointing performances during the NBA playoffs. My next intuition was as follows: Is it possible that we do better when betting favorites? Here was my reasoning. Suppose Team A is stronger than Team B. For instance, Team A might be the 2 seed, while Team B may have finished as the 7 seed.
Now, it is possible that Team A plays a sloppier game because they feel overconfident and take their opponents lightly. Sports Betting Professor Sports Betting Professor The Sports Betting Professor is another new age sports handicapper who depends heavily on formulas and crunching the numbers to come up with their daily picks.
Formulas have shown to get lucky just like most common amateur sports bettors, and clearly not all formulas are created equal. The Sports Betting Professor seems like another product of great marketing and bad picks. Our staff of professionals is among the best in the industry. All three of our industry sharps: Jon Price, Mike Wise, and Dave Michaels are among the most notable in all of sports handicapping.
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