After that is where things start to change. That means 2. The big pro to this sports betting strategy is that it allows you to take advantage of your winning streaks. The downside is that it can be harder to dig yourself out of a hole.
If your bankroll dips below your initial starting point, your wager size is going to decrease. Overall, this makes the timing of your win streaks more important than in the fixed-unit model. That extra variance makes this a slightly higher risk strategy overall. Confidence model The confidence model allows for you to increase your bet size in games where you feel more confident.
Your standard wager should still be 1. Increasing your unit size any higher than that is not recommended until you have demonstrated an ability to win your most confident bets consistently. Even if you are betting the same unit size for each wager to begin with, you can see your record for each wager size. If your most confident plays have a significantly better record than your less confident plays, increasing your wager size in those situations makes a lot of sense.
The confidence model also allows you to sprinkle a half-unit on certain bets from time to time. This is best used on higher upside wagers like parlays and moneyline underdogs. Kelly criterion model The Kelly criterion model takes the confidence model and puts it on steroids. Instead of assigning a confidence level to each pick, you try to determine your exact winning percentage for each wager. Any time your confidence increases or the moneyline odds of your bet increase, the amount suggested by the model will also increase.
These numbers can often be really aggressive. The resulting formula would look like this: 2. Any errors in that department will result in a large amount of your bankroll going down the tubes. Many professional sports bettors use a half or quarter Kelly criterion model, where you would use half or a quarter of the suggested bankroll wager. That is still going to give you more upside than the traditional flat betting or percentage betting models, but it mitigates some of the downside. Tracking your results Tracking your results is extremely important regardless of which bankroll management system you ultimately decide to employ.
Knowledge is power, and tracking your results is going to give you the knowledge you need to audit your performance. Are your confidence levels in line with your results? All of this data can be easily ascertained by tracking your results. You can easily create a spreadsheet to track this data or use an app! Importance of bankroll management So why go through all this trouble? Dealing with streaks Dealing with losing streaks is extremely tough for even the most seasoned sports bettor.
If people have lost during the day, they want to get out of that hole as quickly as possible. This is the definition of a bad process and is a good way to blow through your entire bankroll. You can feel invincible in those situations, which can lead to poor decision making.
Gambling addiction This is a very serious topic that deserves your full attention. If you feel that you have a gambling problem, there are plenty of resources to consult. This is when punters allocate a sort of rating for their bet. A simple way to do this would to have three confidence levels — i. Then, each star or unit has a value allocated to it.
How you allocate this confidence to your bets is up to you. Regardless of how you come up with this, you never deviate from betting within these parameters. Then, your betting amounts increase and decrease with your bankroll. This means you can really capitalise and grow your bankroll when you are doing well.
You take the emotion out of the betting. Following this sort of sports betting bankroll management will ensure maximum growth and minimum chance of busting your bankroll. This means placing identical bets on every game, not varying the bet amount depending how strongly you feel about it. However, if you are willing to put in the research, the aforementioned star or unit system is a great way to build your bankroll.
Just remember to never deviate from your bankroll strategy and always follow strict sports betting bankroll management.
The margins in sports betting are extremely thin.
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The advantage of the flat betting system is that it protects you from chasing losses. Many bettors often get themselves into trouble by betting larger amounts during a bad streak in order to try to "win it all back". Advantage: Since this system prevents you from increasing your bet size, it protects you from larger losses.
Disadvantage: You are betting the same amount of money on games where you have different confidence levels. Percentage Model Using the percentage model, you would pick a designated percentage of your bankroll to place on each wager. This percentage will be risked on every bet you make. Remember, your bankroll will rise and fall with every bet you make, so the actual dollar figure of your bet will be in constant flux. Advantage: This system prevents the bettor from going bust and allows for the bettor to scale a bit better than a Flat Betting model.
Disadvantage: As your bankroll decreases, it becomes harder for you to dig out of a big hole. Confidence Level Model The confidence level model allows the bettor to change their bet size based on their confidence in the bet. It only makes sense that you would put more money on a bet where you perceive yourself to have a greater edge.
As an aside, we would strongly urge you to track all of your bets on the betstamp app. By tracking your plays will you be able to determine if your more confident bets are in fact winning at a greater percentage compared to your less confident bets.
If you find that your more confident bets continue to lose, we would suggest switching away from the confidence level model. Advantage: Easier to scale as you are placing more money on games with bigger edges. Disadvantage: Some people are actually not as successful when they are more confident in a pick and this could lead to some larger swings. This model requires the bettor to have access to probabilities. You would use these probabilities, and plug them into the following formula to determine the exact percentage of your bankroll that you should risk on the bet.
It is very important that you have the utmost confidence in your probabilities. If they are off, your bankroll is sure to take a major hit. Advantage: The truest form of staking. This formula is optimized to make you the most money in the long run. Disadvantage: It can often be labor intensive to calculate your bet sizes and sometimes you don't have the time to do so. Money management takes discipline and many sports bettors are bad at it because they lack discipline.
It may help if you think of this as an investment. Ask yourself, would you keep pouring cash into a bad investment? One Wager at a Time Make one wager at a time. You may want to try to hedge your bets by making various wagers on one play, period, quarter or one at bat. Also remember that a winning streak is partly due to your hard work and analysis but it is also due to circumstances that you could not imagine and chance happenstances that no one has control over.
Everyone loses and you need to be ready for it. All or Nothing You may get greedy or desperate and decide to go for all or nothing by wagering everything on a bet that pays You may luck out and hit that wager. Learn More About Strategy.
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